SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Wellington Phoenix in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Wellington Phoenix.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
46.56% ( 0.3) | 23.96% ( -0.04) | 29.49% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 58.92% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.94% ( 0.05) | 43.06% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.54% ( 0.05) | 65.46% ( -0.04) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.32% ( 0.14) | 18.68% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.98% ( 0.23) | 50.02% ( -0.23) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.46% ( -0.14) | 27.55% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.94% ( -0.19) | 63.06% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.4% Total : 46.56% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.96% | 1-2 @ 7.18% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.9% Total : 29.49% |
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