Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 39.62%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
