Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 49.04%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle Jets would win this match.
