SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.14%. A win for Western United had a probability of 27.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.4%). The likeliest Western United win was 2-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
27.65% ( 0.06) | 23.21% ( 0.04) | 49.14% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 60.16% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.17% ( -0.14) | 40.82% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.79% ( -0.14) | 63.21% ( 0.14) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.32% ( -0.03) | 27.67% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.77% ( -0.04) | 63.22% ( 0.04) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.18% ( -0.09) | 16.81% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.2% ( -0.16) | 46.79% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.93% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.85% Total : 27.65% | 1-1 @ 10.65% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.2% | 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.3% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 7.4% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.65% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.4% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.18% Total : 49.14% |
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