These two sides posted the worst defensive records in the top six, shipping 91 goals between them throughout the regular season, and with plenty of attacking talent for both teams, that could result in a high-scoring affair.
The presence of Zawada in particular will make Wellington believe that they can pull off an upset, but they are underdogs for a reason and we are backing Adelaide to just about come out on top and progress to the semi-finals.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 53.3%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 24.6% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
