Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 53.64%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 23.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.