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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Western United had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
46.07% ( 0.71) | 23.84% ( -0.2) | 30.08% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 59.7% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.79% ( 0.66) | 42.2% ( -0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.39% ( 0.66) | 64.61% ( -0.66) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.46% ( 0.56) | 18.54% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.22% ( 0.93) | 49.78% ( -0.93) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.28% ( -0) | 26.72% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.01% ( -0) | 61.98% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.67% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.48% Total : 46.07% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 6.13% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.95% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 7.27% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 6.54% ( -0.2)0-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.09% |
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