Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 48.41%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
