Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for United City had a probability of 22.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a United City win it was 1-0 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
