Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for United City had a probability of 20.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.77%), while for a United City win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
