Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for BG Pathum United had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest BG Pathum United win was 1-0 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
