SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Congo | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Angola | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Cameroon | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 35.83%. A draw had a probability of 33.6% and a win for Congo had a probability of 30.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.39%) and 1-2 (6.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (17.74%), while for a Congo win it was 1-0 (14.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Congo | Draw | Mali |
30.52% ( -4.78) | 33.65% ( 0.05) | 35.83% ( 4.73) |
| Both teams to score 33.39% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 25.04% ( -0.16) | 74.96% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 9.75% ( -0.09) | 90.24% ( 0.09) |
| Congo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.81% ( -3.75) | 44.19% ( 3.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.72% ( -3.23) | 80.28% ( 3.22) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.84% ( 3.46) | 40.16% ( -3.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.2% ( 3.01) | 76.8% ( -3.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Congo | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 14.49% ( -1.48) 2-0 @ 5.92% ( -1.31)2-1 @ 5.4% ( -0.6)3-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.57)3-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.34)Other @ 1.63% Total : 30.52% | 0-0 @ 17.74% ( 0.1) 1-1 @ 13.22% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.21% Total : 33.64% | 0-1 @ 16.19% ( 1.56) 0-2 @ 7.39% ( 1.32)1-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.54)0-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.57)1-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.31)Other @ 2.14% Total : 35.83% |
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