SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mozambique win with a probability of 41.48%. A draw had a probability of 30.2% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 28.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mozambique win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.55%) and 1-2 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Madagascar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Mozambique |
28.37% ( 0.07) | 30.15% ( -0.49) | 41.48% ( 0.42) |
| Both teams to score 40.3% ( 1.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.41% ( 1.4) | 66.59% ( -1.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.02% ( 0.94) | 84.99% ( -0.94) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.08% ( 0.87) | 40.93% ( -0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.51% ( 0.77) | 77.49% ( -0.77) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.22% ( 0.98) | 31.78% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.79% ( 1.11) | 68.21% ( -1.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Mozambique |
| 1-0 @ 11.61% ( -0.33) 2-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.28% Total : 28.36% | 1-1 @ 13.32% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 13% ( -0.69)2-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.17)Other @ 0.41% Total : 30.15% | 0-1 @ 14.9% ( -0.38) 0-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 7.64% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.97% Total : 41.47% |
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