SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudan win with a probability of 43.55%. A win for Madagascar had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Madagascar win was 0-1 (9.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Madagascar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sudan | Draw | Madagascar |
43.55% ( -0.09) | 27.44% ( -0.05) | 29.01% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 47.63% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.39% ( 0.25) | 57.61% ( -0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.62% ( 0.2) | 78.38% ( -0.19) |
| Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.75% ( 0.07) | 26.25% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.64% ( 0.09) | 61.36% ( -0.09) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.58% ( 0.24) | 35.42% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.82% ( 0.25) | 72.18% ( -0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sudan | Draw | Madagascar |
| 1-0 @ 12.43% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.63% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.32% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.85% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.71% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.24% ( -0)Other @ 2.09% Total : 43.55% | 1-1 @ 12.9% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.43% | 0-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.7% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.05% Total : 29.01% |
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