SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Angola | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 51.24%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Angola had a probability of 21.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.84%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for an Angola win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Angola |
| 51.24% | 27.31% ( 0.02) | 21.45% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 41.79% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.11% ( -0.07) | 61.89% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.34% ( -0.05) | 81.65% ( 0.05) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.56% ( -0.03) | 24.44% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.12% ( -0.04) | 58.87% ( 0.04) |
| Angola Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.3% ( -0.05) | 44.69% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.31% ( -0.05) | 80.69% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Angola |
| 1-0 @ 15.39% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.84% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.09% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.79% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 2.2% Total : 51.24% | 1-1 @ 12.39% 0-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.48% Total : 27.3% | 0-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.54% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.34% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0)2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 0.88% Total : 21.45% |
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