Only Algeria have recorded more clean sheets than Senegal and Mauritania at the 2023 CHAN, so we expect a low-scoring affair here. That said, we can also see Senegal getting the job done come the end of the 90 minutes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 75.43%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 6.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (18.52%) and 3-0 (12.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.72%), while for a Mauritania win it was 0-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 19% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Senegal in this match.
