SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 52.39%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Barracas Central had a probability of 21.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.37%) and 1-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Barracas Central win it was 1-0 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barracas Central | Draw | Boca Juniors |
21.92% ( 0.14) | 25.68% ( -0.01) | 52.39% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 46.5% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.98% ( 0.17) | 56.02% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.89% ( 0.14) | 77.1% ( -0.14) |
| Barracas Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.19% ( 0.24) | 40.81% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.61% ( 0.21) | 77.38% ( -0.22) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.56% ( 0.01) | 21.43% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.55% ( 0.02) | 54.44% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barracas Central | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0) 2-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.24% Total : 21.92% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.7% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 13.47% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 10.37% ( -0.06)1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.33% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.78% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.84% ( 0)Other @ 3.12% Total : 52.39% |
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