Even though Tigre will be more pleased with their start to the second phase, we cannot ignore the result in the corresponding fixture several weeks ago. With that in mind, we are backing a narrow win for the home side, who can catapult themselves up the standings in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Tigre had a probability of 16.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Tigre win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.

Result
Boca Juniors	Draw	Tigre
59.9% ( -0.7)	23.78% ( -0.1)	16.32% ( 0.79)

Both teams to score 43.08% (

1.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.14% (

1.51)

55.85% (

-1.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.03% (

1.21)

76.97% (

-1.22)

Boca Juniors Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.58% (

0.31)

18.41% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.42% (

0.52)

49.57% (

-0.52)

Tigre Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.8% (

1.99)

47.19% (

-2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.37% (

1.45)

82.63% (

-1.46)

Score Analysis

Boca Juniors 59.89%

Tigre 16.32%

Draw 23.77%

Boca Juniors	Draw	Tigre
1-0 @ 14.7% ( -0.73) 2-0 @ 12.44% ( -0.48) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.17) 3-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 5.27% ( 0.15) 4-0 @ 2.97% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.16) 5-0 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.95% Total : 59.89%	1-1 @ 11.04% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.69% ( -0.52) 2-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.25) Other @ 0.54% Total : 23.77%	0-1 @ 6.53% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.26) 0-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.16% Total : 16.32%