SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 38.6%. A win for Belgrano had a probability of 32% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Belgrano win was 1-0 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lanus in this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgrano | Draw | Lanus |
32% ( 0.27) | 29.4% ( 0.18) | 38.6% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 43.39% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.56% ( -0.54) | 63.43% ( 0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.22% ( -0.39) | 82.78% ( 0.39) |
| Belgrano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.7% ( -0.09) | 36.3% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.91% ( -0.1) | 73.08% ( 0.1) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.12% ( -0.55) | 31.87% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.68% ( -0.64) | 68.32% ( 0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgrano | Draw | Lanus |
| 1-0 @ 11.72% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 6.79% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.01% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.93% Total : 32% | 1-1 @ 13.4% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 11.57% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.39% | 0-1 @ 13.22% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 7.56% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.86% Total : 38.59% |
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