While Independiente have been the dominant side in this fixture in recent seasons, they head into this match in poor form and without a recognised manager on the sidelines. Velez Sarsfield ground out a very good result against Newell's Old Boys last week, and we feel they will do the same in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 40.52%. A draw had a probability of 30.4% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 29.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.31%) and 2-1 (7.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.37%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
-0.46) 
0.52) 
