SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Central Cordoba | 12 | -8 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (11.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
38.36% ( 0.39) | 29.2% ( 0.07) | 32.43% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 44% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.26% ( -0.28) | 62.74% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.72% ( -0.2) | 82.28% ( 0.21) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.34% ( 0.1) | 31.66% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.92% ( 0.11) | 68.07% ( -0.11) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.38% ( -0.48) | 35.61% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.61% ( -0.5) | 72.38% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 12.96% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.91% Total : 38.36% | 1-1 @ 13.38% 0-0 @ 11.27% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.57% Total : 29.19% | 0-1 @ 11.64% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.05% Total : 32.43% |
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