SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 76.44%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 7.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.58%) and 3-0 (11.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Instituto |
76.44% ( -6.81) | 15.83% ( 4.01) | 7.72% ( 2.81) |
| Both teams to score 40.26% ( 2.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.78% ( -7.12) | 44.22% ( 7.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.41% ( -7.3) | 66.6% ( 7.3) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.23% ( -3.17) | 9.77% ( 3.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.5% ( -7.94) | 32.5% ( 7.94) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.62% ( 3.72) | 55.38% ( -3.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.9% ( 2.08) | 88.1% ( -2.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Instituto |
| 2-0 @ 14.63% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 12.58% ( 1.98)3-0 @ 11.34% ( -1.71)2-1 @ 8.65% ( 1.07)3-1 @ 6.7% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 6.59% ( -2.27)4-1 @ 3.9% ( -0.77)5-0 @ 3.07% ( -1.75)3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.18)5-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.72)6-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.99)4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.83% Total : 76.43% | 1-1 @ 7.44% ( 1.86) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( 1.51)2-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.56)Other @ 0.43% Total : 15.83% | 0-1 @ 3.2% ( 1.15) 1-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.73)0-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.41)Other @ 1.38% Total : 7.72% |
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