SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.66%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 0-1 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Instituto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Gimnasia |
38.56% ( 0) | 29.41% ( 0.02) | 32.02% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 43.35% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.51% ( -0.06) | 63.48% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.18% ( -0.04) | 82.82% ( 0.04) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.08% ( -0.03) | 31.92% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.63% ( -0.03) | 68.37% ( 0.03) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.68% ( -0.05) | 36.32% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.9% ( -0.05) | 73.1% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 13.23% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.66% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.91% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.88% 3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 2.85% Total : 38.56% | 1-1 @ 13.4% 0-0 @ 11.59% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.4% | 0-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.95% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 32.02% |
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