Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 48.09%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 24.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.65%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (9.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
