Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 50.17%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.4%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (8.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
