Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 42.95%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.67%) and 2-1 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.19%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
