Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 54.44%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 20.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
