SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 30.1% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 1-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (11.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for San Lorenzo in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | San Lorenzo |
30.1% ( 1.49) | 29.55% ( 0.59) | 40.35% ( -2.08) |
| Both teams to score 42.45% ( -0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.68% ( -1.41) | 64.31% ( 1.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.59% ( -1.01) | 83.41% ( 1.01) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.76% ( 0.4) | 38.23% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25% ( 0.38) | 74.99% ( -0.39) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.73% ( -1.9) | 31.27% ( 1.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.38% ( -2.27) | 67.62% ( 2.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | San Lorenzo |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.7) 2-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.4)3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 1.77% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.63% Total : 30.09% | 1-1 @ 13.36% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 11.95% ( 0.61)2-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.54% | 0-1 @ 13.89% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.08% ( -0.44)1-2 @ 7.77% ( -0.33)0-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.35)1-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.3)2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.11% Total : 40.34% |
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