Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 5
Jun 14, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Alberto Jose Armando
We said: Boca Juniors 2-1 Velez Sarsfield
With the form of each team suggesting that they are evenly matched at this stage, we anticipate a closely-fought contest at La Bombonera. However, home advantage could prove key for Boca, who may feel more inclined to go on the offensive in a tight fixture.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 54.99%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 18.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Boca Juniors.
| Result |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
54.99% ( -0.04) | 26.16% ( -0.28) | 18.84% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 41.25% ( 1.12) |
| 39.28% ( 1.22) | 60.72% ( -1.22) |
| 19.22% ( 0.91) | 80.78% ( -0.91) |
| 77.72% ( 0.5) | 22.28% ( -0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.27% ( 0.74) | 55.73% ( -0.75) |
| 53.07% ( 1.11) | 46.92% ( -1.12) |
