Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 54.99%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 18.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Boca Juniors.
Result | ||
Boca Juniors | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
54.99% ( -0.04) | 26.16% ( -0.28) | 18.84% ( 0.32) |
Both teams to score 41.25% ( 1.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.28% ( 1.22) | 60.72% ( -1.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.22% ( 0.91) | 80.78% ( -0.91) |
Boca Juniors Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.72% ( 0.5) | 22.28% ( -0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.27% ( 0.74) | 55.73% ( -0.75) |
Velez Sarsfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.07% ( 1.11) | 46.92% ( -1.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.57% ( 0.83) | 82.43% ( -0.83) |
Score Analysis |
Boca Juniors | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
1-0 @ 15.69% ( -0.49) 2-0 @ 11.78% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 5.9% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.66% Total : 54.98% | 1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.45% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.46% Total : 26.15% | 0-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.31% Total : 18.84% |
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