Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Standard Liege had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.06%) and 2-0 (5.8%). The likeliest Standard Liege win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leuven would win this match.
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