While Atletico Mineiro will be considered as favourites for Saturday's contest, an upturn in form for Fortaleza suggests that a closely-fought encounter could be on the cards.
Nevertheless, the hosts should have enough quality in their side, particularly in the final third, to come away with all three points in Belo Horizonte.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 65.43%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 13.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.51%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.83%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
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