SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 36.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bahia | Draw | Flamengo |
38.09% ( 0.13) | 25.54% ( -0.03) | 36.37% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 55.82% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.86% ( 0.11) | 48.14% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.7% ( 0.11) | 70.3% ( -0.11) |
| Bahia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.19% ( 0.12) | 24.81% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.61% ( 0.17) | 59.39% ( -0.18) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.24% ( -0.01) | 25.76% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.3% ( -0.01) | 60.7% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bahia | Draw | Flamengo |
| 1-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.91% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.8% Total : 38.09% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.39% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.54% | 0-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.19% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.58% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 36.37% |
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