Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 16.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.53%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (5.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.03) 
