Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 47.53%. A win for Santos had a probability of 26.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
-0.45) 
0.06) 
