Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 42.76%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 28.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.55%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 1-0 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
Result | ||
Chapecoense | Draw | Fortaleza |
28.51% | 28.74% | 42.76% |
Both teams to score 43.85% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
37.75% | 62.25% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.08% | 81.92% |
Chapecoense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.65% | 38.35% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.89% | 75.11% |
Fortaleza Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.14% | 28.87% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.27% | 64.73% |
Score Analysis |
Chapecoense | Draw | Fortaleza |
1-0 @ 10.6% 2-1 @ 6.32% 2-0 @ 5.08% 3-1 @ 2.02% 3-0 @ 1.62% 3-2 @ 1.25% Other @ 1.6% Total : 28.5% | 1-1 @ 13.18% 0-0 @ 11.07% 2-2 @ 3.93% Other @ 0.56% Total : 28.74% | 0-1 @ 13.75% 0-2 @ 8.55% 1-2 @ 8.19% 0-3 @ 3.54% 1-3 @ 3.39% 2-3 @ 1.63% 0-4 @ 1.1% 1-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.55% Total : 42.75% |
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