SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 50.14%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 25.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Corinthians | Draw | Bahia |
50.14% ( -0.49) | 24.26% ( 0.31) | 25.6% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 54.76% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.87% ( -1.18) | 47.13% ( 1.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.64% ( -1.11) | 69.36% ( 1.11) |
| Corinthians Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.17% ( -0.64) | 18.83% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.73% ( -1.08) | 50.27% ( 1.08) |
| Bahia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.46% ( -0.48) | 32.54% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.93% ( -0.55) | 69.07% ( 0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Corinthians | Draw | Bahia |
| 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.34% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 4.75% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.23% Total : 50.14% | 1-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.25% | 0-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.54% Total : 25.6% |
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