Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 52.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
-0.35) 
0.49) 
