SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 58.21%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 19.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Corinthians | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
58.21% ( 0.57) | 22.62% ( -0.06) | 19.18% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 51.57% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.76% ( -0.46) | 47.24% ( 0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.53% ( -0.43) | 69.47% ( 0.43) |
| Corinthians Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.07% ( 0.03) | 15.93% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.81% ( 0.06) | 45.19% ( -0.06) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.34% ( -0.82) | 38.66% ( 0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.6% ( -0.79) | 75.4% ( 0.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Corinthians | Draw | Vasco da Gama |
| 1-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.23) 2-0 @ 10.39% ( 0.23)2-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.36% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 6.05% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.78% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 2.23% Total : 58.2% | 1-1 @ 10.75% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.62% | 0-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.33% Total : 19.18% |
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