Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 55.69%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Cruzeiro win it was 0-1 (7.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.
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