Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 52.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
0.02) 
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