Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 62.42%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 15.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.1%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.13) 
