As well organised and compact as Coritiba have been at home this season, there is plenty of quality on the Sao Paulo roster, and we do not expect Glorioso will be able to keep them at bay for the entire 90 minutes.
The last seven encounters between these sides have been decided by a goal or fewer, and we anticipate another tight match between two teams with plenty of quality all over the field.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.27%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 34.74% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 1-0 (10.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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