While Fortaleza's form on the domestic front has been more than concerning, Vojvoda's men have shown themselves to be a different side in South America's premier competition this season, and they will be keen to gain an advantage on home turf.
We back them to narrowly triumph on Friday, with everything still in the balance for next week's second leg in Argentina.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 41%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-0 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.03) 
