Given the hosts' record at both ends of the pitch this season and the visitors' long list of absentees, we can only envisage a low-scoring contest on Wednesday.
Even without the majority of their key attackers, Flamengo should have the quality to find a decisive goal at the Arena Pantanal and get past a struggling Cuiaba side who have not scored since early October.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.16%) and 1-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
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