Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 60.4%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 17.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
0.26) 
-0.01) 
