Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 75.65%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 9.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.01%) and 1-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.19%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
0.57) 
-0.25) 
