Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 40.69%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (10.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
0.48) 
-0.02) 
