Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 71.42%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 10.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.71%) and 3-0 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.61%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
0.63) 
-0.26) 
