Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 27.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
0.5) 
-0.03) 
