Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 47.8%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 24.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.
-0.23) 
0.12) 
